An insight to odds compilation – how can knowing the odds compiler help with sports betting strategy?
The odds compiler is the engine of the bookmaker back office. Their job is to assess probabilities, turn then into odds, and lure unwary punters into spending their money on dead-cert losers.
Note from the editor. Our researchers have investigated the bookmaker industry and gained important information about how a bookmaker is run.
Delving into this industry, and the odds compiler’s job specifically, can seriously help us with our sports betting strategy. Understanding how a bookmaker works, who the odds compilers are, and what mistakes they will make will give you an edge over other sports betting traders.
It is not difficult to imagine that at some point in the lives of most people they have had stresses at work. Or lots of jobs to do at home, mowing the garden, doing the washing, etc, etc. Well, this is similar of the odds compiler. Over-stretched and not able to process the same amount of information as a super computer they invariable price up some sporting event on a wing and a prayer.
Odds compiler's mistakes |
Who are the odds compilers? |
Compete with the odds compiler |
Changes to the betting industry |
Why does an odds compiler make mistakes?
First there is a lot of competition in the market. This has led to the ‘innovation’ of many more betting markets and mad capped ‘specials’ bets. Some of these markets are difficult to price properly; to assess the true probability of the event happening. With ‘special’ bets there is very limited consensus from other fixed odds bookmakers to compare their prices. These difficulties for the odds compilers create a gold mine of opportunity for the informed sports betting strategist.
In view of the amount of expertise required to price up sports games with numerous factors affecting the outcome odds compilers generally only specialise in two or three sports. It’s no surprise that with all the competition from internet based offshore bookmakers the compilers get stretched.
What sorts of odd compilers are there?
Odds compilers are people. There have idiosyncrasies like any one else. Those who will only run with the herd (offering the same odds as all the other bookmakers) and those who are chancers.
Some know can tell you the percentage of passes a football midfielder makes when they play at home, away, on the left or right. Would you want to know how many shots on goal every premiership side has had back to 1980! I’ll leave that question hanging.
How can we compete with these boffins?
There is unrivalled access to information due to the rise of the internet. To a lesser extent the television and newspapers also help. You have access to all the information the bookmakers has. There are website that package the exact same information the bookmakers use and hand to the punters in an easy to profit [from] format. I can think of a website that does that for football betting strategy straight away.
How is the betting industry changing?
Commercial pressures in a nutshell… the sort of odds compiler that can handle all this information is declining. They just don’t have enough to do the research required. We mentioned previously that an odds compiler should concentrate on one or two specialist areas. With the bookmakers finding more and more sports to bet this is becoming more difficult. Hhmm, there’s super bikes, Sumo wrestling, Chess, British Basketball, Australian Rules football, and more. How do they keep up!
Conclusion
The game is changing. The bookmakers and their odds compilers are under pressure producing regular opportunities to exploit. If you apply the follow tips to your sports betting strategy you will have an advantage over the crowd.
Think of specialising in one sport. The over stretched odds compilers, especially the less experienced ones, who are trying to keep track of half a dozen sports or more, do not have time to compete with informed traders like you.
If you specialise will begin to realise which bookmakers are employing the odds compilers who are making the mistakes. Like honey to a bee!